And once again the property industry has demonstrated its uncanny knack for delivering a surge in new space exactly when it's least needed.

I remember being asked in all seriousness during a Q&A session at a BCSC conference a few years ago if I thought there would ever be another property crash. Well, now we know the answer.

The latest pedestrian data from SPSL shows that unseasonal bad weather and an unfortunate ecclesiastical calendar combined with the general economic gloom to turn the Easter shopping season into a non-event.

Retailers are going to need some serious persuading to open new stores against such a backdrop. So far all the new malls have been about 90 per cent let on opening day, but it has to be asked how much longer this can continue. There has to be a limit to the concessions landlords can give tenants, before they finally face reality and cut headline rents.

Until now it's been an outward yield shift that's hit shopping centre values, but once ERVs turn downwards this could provide another twist to the downward spiral in the market.

The point is that developers press the starting button on projects with absolutely no knowledge of what the consumer or investment climate is going to be like in three or four years' time when opening day comes round. It's an act of faith.

Of course it'll all come out in the wash and the new malls will be with us for decades to come, long after the present short-term troubles are forgotten. But that doesn't help agents or investors today. So console yourselves with this thought: you could be managing or letting office blocks in the City of London.

Chin up!

Graham Parker, Editor

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