And the funds for our capital investment projects? Where is the finance to come from? Increasingly from sovereign funds, from countries such as Russia, the Middle East and China, bringing with it all sorts of political issues.

What a way to start a conference at 9.30am on a Tuesday morning in Manchester. But Professor Richard Scase, business forecaster, academic, journalist and author, was actually in a very optimistic mood as he kicked off this year's BCSC shopping centre management conference earlier this month.

If we stopped weeping into our beer and looked at the broader, long-term trends, it all looked very, very good indeed, he said. "Look at the basic UK demographics ? the population increases by 5 million in 10 years. People need food, people need clothes, people need things in their households. So if you do absolutely nothing at all, more people are going to be coming through your shopping centres." The issue, said Scase, was how to grab an increasing share from your competitors.

To be ahead of the game, shopping centres and retailers had to be agile enough to respond not just to the trends of today, but to what customers were going to be wanting in the next five to 10 years. And this was the problem, said Scase. Demographics were changing so fundamentally that the traditional marketing categories we used to help us define consumer lifestyles and spending patterns no longer applied. The demographic categories we used were now just too crude.

"We have the end of age, occupation and income as predictors of marketing categories," said Scase. "We know them, we eat and sleep them. But why do we have them? Because they reflect a lifestyle. But it doesn't happen any more. Lifestyle is quite separate from these marketing categories. People are released from their demographics."

And that meant a total rethink of the retail environment, warned Scase. For example, there was a 40 per cent increase in women having children over the age of 40, he said. Traditionally women had their first child in their early 20s. Now the average age for having children in the UK was 29, he said. "What does this mean for our marketing strategies, the shopping experience, the offer?"

Another demographic change was the role of immigration, said Scase. "In the next 25 years, population increase due to first, second, and third generation migrants to the UK accounts for 70 per cent of population increase. And that will lead to huge regional differences which will impact on the offering in our shopping centres."

Also, the population increase in the UK was not evenly spread, said Scase. The north-south divide was getting wider, leading to a huge demand for a shopping offer in the south compared with the north.

But it was households that made shopping decisions, argued Scase. "And the good news is that over the next 10 to 15 years, the number of households is increasing by 23 per cent." That would have a huge impact on the retail offer, he said, because the number of single-person households was increasing. Single-person households would account for 73 per cent of the total predicted growth in the number of households, said Scase. "The household, that decision-making unit, becomes more and more atomised in terms of individuals. We have the single man, the single woman becoming the consumer."

But the shopping experience was still focused on women, he said, "How do single, live-alone men get treated? 'Are you all right there?' is the normal question when a single, middle-aged man walks into a store. The whole shopping experience is unfriendly to single, live-alone men."

And we are getting older, said Scase. "That means we have to redefine our experience of age. When you are in your 50s you are still going to be young. You still have a future."

What did that mean? It meant, said Scase, that there was a new generation gap. Over the past 20 years, the over 55s had by and large shown a 100 per cent increase in net worth and a 50 per cent rise in income. But if you looked at the other traditional marketing age groups, they had all, with one exception, shown a zero or even negative growth in net worth and income. The exceptions were the 30-34 year-olds with a 20 per cent increase in net worth and a 5 per cent increase in income.

The over 55s ? this is the new consumer, said Scase. "But if we look at the appeal of shopping centres, it is generally to those people who have no money.

"People's psychology is released from their physiology. We no longer have to act our age. Age no longer affects the extent to which people want new experiences."

Adding to these changes was the continuing evaporation of brand loyalty, said Scase. "How do we retain our customers when they are no longer loyal to a brand, no longer committed to the traditional lifestyles, but want fun. How do we respond to that? We can only do it by being agile, adaptive and ahead of the game. Forget the demographics, get into experience."

Checklist for future action on sustainability

"Whether climate change exists or not is immaterial because it is a political reality and we have to deal with it." Paul Cornes, sustainability director at Prupim and chairman of BCSC's sustainability taskforce, has 40 tips for improving the environmental performance of your shopping centre. Here is his checklist.

Energy

Commercial property accounts for 45 per cent of energy consumed in Britain, 43 per cent of which is used by retailers and shopping centres.

l Renewable electricity

l Micro-generation ? eg solar panels, wind turbines

l Sell surplus energy back to the National Grid.

Waste

The cost of waste in the retail sector is typically 4 per cent of turnover. It can be 10 per cent.

l Do you have a policy on waste minimisation?

l What do your tenants do?

Water

Water minimisation is one of the easiest ways of achieving cost savings.

l Have you conducted a water audit at your centre?

l Have you installed 'hippos' in toilet cisterns?

l Is there an opportunity to change to self-closing taps?

Community

Many shopping centres are at the heart of communities and have a huge impact.

l What are the big community issues for your centre ? anti-social behaviour, environment, job creation etc?

l What are your objectives/goals?

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