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Happy New Year!
Published:  15 January, 2008
Page 8 

Before M&S chief executive Stuart Rose could even drop into Buckingham Palace to be dubbed Sir Stuart, the gloss has come off his much-hailed revival of the company. After a bruising Christmas the share price has dipped back below the 400p per share that Sir Philip Green was willing to bid four years ago.

M&S is not alone in finding the high street an uncomfortable place to be: Next has reported yet another fall in like-for-like sales continuing a two-year decline. And shoe retailer Dolcis has found itself less than well-heeled and has had to open talks with its bankers.

So what does this mean for occupier demand as we enter a year when more new shopping centre space is going to be delivered than ever before?

It could go either way. Retailers could do what Next has done and grow sales by taking on new floorspace, even at the risk of cannibalising sales from existing stores. That strategy has kept turnover going forward even when like-for-likes are down.

Or they could could pull in their horns and stop taking new space. M&S is already making worrying noises about cutting back on capital expenditure. And Sir Stuart has even been quoted repeating an old retail maxim - reputedly coined by one of his knighted predecessors Sir Richard Greenbury - that goes: "Sales are for vanity, profits are for sanity."

Of course that sort of attitude can always be overcome by a well-aimed capital contribution from the landlord. But at a time when turmoil in the investment market has made a mockery of more than a few development appraisals, there must be a limit to what some developers can afford to pay.

Developers like Multiplex - which has more than 95 per cent of its Eden project in High Wycombe safely let - must be heaving a sigh of relief. Others, which still have substantial amounts of space to let in schemes which are nearing completion, could be getting nervous.

Expect some interesting negotiations over the coming few months.

Graham Parker, Editor



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