At the moment London's West End is the UK's number one retail destination with a comparison spend of £4.8bn annually. Glasgow city centre ranks second, with a £1.8bn spend. Bluewater is the only standalone mall to make it into the top ten, and its £1.18bn comparison spend puts it in eighth place.

But looking ahead Experian says new development is likely to attract a significant proportion of this spending power, putting established destinations under threat. The advent of Westfield London to the west, Stratford City to the east and the Elephant & Castle development to the south means that by 2017 London's West End will have lost 13 per cent of its trade. Westfield London as a standalone destination is expected to enter the rankings at number 15.

Glasgow city centre will retain its second place but Experian forecasts a 10 per cent loss of trade to new developments like Silverburn and Ravenscraig. The researchers expect that the Mall at Cribbs Causeway will lose 15 per cent of trade once Cabot Circus is completed in Bristol city centre and Southgate is completed in Bath. The Sheffield One development could lead to an 8.4 per cent sales slump at Meadowhall while the Harewood Quarter and Trinity developments in Leeds city centre could lead to a 9.5 per cent loss of trade at the White Rose centre.

Experian director Jonathan de Mello pointed out that the figures are based on the assumption that consumer spending remains at today's levels and that owners of threatened malls do nothing to counter the competition.

The biggest winner will be Liverpool city centre. Grosvenor's 1.4m-sq ft Liverpool One project, coupled with the refurbishment of Clayton Square and the St John's Centre, is expected to catapult the city up from 15th place today to 6th in 2017. "It will allow Liverpool to reclaim its rightful place in the rankings," said de Mello.

However, he expressed concern about the 7 million sq ft of new retail space planned for the north-west region as a whole. Experian calculates there is only retailer demand for a little over half of this space. "It's going to be a very competitive market and it will be important for new schemes to differentiate themselves," he said.

2007 Retail Rankings

Rank Centre Comparison Spend

1 London West End £4,865,633,893

2 Central Glasgow £1,870,869,262

3 Central Birmingham £1,417,108,849

4 Central Manchester £1,305,786,113

5 Central Nottingham £1,258,157,422

6 Central Leeds £1,242,779,779

7 Edinburgh Princes St £1,198,631,244

8 Bluewater £1,187,186,978

9 Central Newcastle upon Tyne £1,153,497,830

10 Central Norwich £1,114,640,647

11 Central Cardiff £1,101,499,329

12 Central Kingston upon Thames £1,081,255,850

13 Central Southampton £1,077,696,527

14 Central Croydon £1,053,873,406

15 Central Liverpool £1,038,088,930

2017 Retail Rankings

Rank change Centre change in

Comparison Spend

1 0 London West End -13.2%

2 0 Glasgow Central -11.6%

3 0 Central Birmingham +3.7%

4 0 Central Manchester +7.3%

5 0 Central Nottingham +11.0%

6 +9 Central Liverpool +33.5%

7 -1 Central Leeds +3.9%

8 +3 Central Cardiff +16.0%

9 0 Central Newcastle upon Tyne +6.3%

10 -3 Edinburgh Princes Street -1.1%

11 -3 Bluewater -4.8%

12 -2 Central Norwich -0.1%

13 +1 Central Croydon +3.7%

14 -2 Central Kingston upon Thames +1.1%

15 ? Westfield London ?

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