Speaking about his research, Dr Jonathan Reynolds, author of the Future of Retail Business Models, told his audience of retail property experts how formats that are not sufficiently innovative will have no future, while even formats that initially succeed are likely to quickly lose their point of difference as competitors copy them increasingly rapidly.

The research demonstrates how prevailing market drivers, including the growth of e-commerce, trends in consumer behaviour and international competition, are determining winning and losing formats.

New kinds of convenience stores, such as Tesco Express; discount formats, such as Primark; eclectic and high speciality formats, such as Hotel Chocolat; home delivery, such as Next; and those retailers that seek to add experience for the consumer or contribute to their well-being, such as Games Workshop and Dr & Herbs, are the retail format types that could offer opportunities for growth.

In addition, the report provides examples of international retail formats with potential, some of which are already trading in the UK, such as Apple, Tchibo and Oil & Vinegar.

The report also identifies a number of formats that are in danger of losing ground. These include those that either overstretch themselves or fail to add sufficient value, those which fail to develop multi-channel presence, those which are purely reactive, and the 'in betweenies' - those formats which are neither one-stop nor convenient, cheap nor high quality.

Reynolds said: "Retail is a risky business. If you fail to be innovative or low priced you're in trouble. Even if retailers do change rapidly there will always be someone to copy that change. The average innovation of supermarkets is six weeks, and that was three years ago so it is probably three weeks now."

The report warns that shopping destinations will have to be proactive in securing a future with a diverse mix of formats. In addition, retailers will need to undertake one or more of a series of key 'searches' in order to succeed. These include a search for authority, which requires retailers to make their ranges wider, deeper or more 'edited' in order to provide an impression of greater authority to those consumers with particular interests; the search for efficiency by adapting the format to the market and by ensuring operationally excellent business processes; the search for new convenience, that now goes beyond just 'distance from home' as consumers search for different forms of convenience; the search for difference, so that speciality stores intensify the differentiation by employing experts and creating store ambience; and the search for responsibility - identifying the real importance of corporate social responsibility as well as the increasing relevance of customer service and product after-care.

BCSC chief executive Michael Green said: "Many shopping places completed in the next three years will be built on forecasts made in the past five years but there is no guarantee that new retailers will take the space.

"The retail property sector is often too cautious and is likely to miss innovations. It fails to recognise or is unwilling to meet the changing requirements of the speciality retailer.

"Instead, it will need to be proactive in developing a diverse mix of formats."

Meanwhile, How Much Space? - written by Dr Neil Blake, indicates that the proportion of non-food space in super- and hypermarkets will increase to 25 per cent by 2015 - up from 21 per cent in 2005 - driving demand for a dramatic increase in additional floorspace which would not be justifiable based on food sales alone.

By analysing this together with a predicted slowdown in sales growth due to people borrowing less and a predicted fall in imported goods prices; the growth of alternatives to physical stores; and the potential for increases in sales densities, the research points towards a limited need for additional floorspace.

Calculations show a need for over 64 million sq ft of additional comparison store space in England and Wales between 2006 and 2015. Estimates from CBRE, meanwhile, show a total of 84 million sq ft of potential new comparison space in the development pipeline, which even allowing for possible demolitions needed to make way for the new developments, leaves an additional requirement of just 5 million sq ft.

However, there are significant regional differences. In the South of England there appears to be a lack of new development relative to likely sales growth, while in the North West there could be a surplus of new developments.

Chief executive Michael Green said: "With the super- and hypermarket chains firmly committed to increasing their share of the comparison goods market, there are very real implications for levels of spending available to stores in our high streets and shopping centres and this will undoubtedly have a knock on effect on demand.

"If they are going to compete successfully for this spend, high streets and shopping centres need to focus on what distinguishes them from super- and hypermarkets and, in particular, on the quality of experience they offer in terms of access, service, environment and entertainment."

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