Bristol and Bath dominate the retail spend of the substantial economy located at the M4 and M5 intersection. The cities located 12.3 miles apart (approximately a 22-minute drive time) are completely different in character and appeal to different audiences.

Bristol is substantially larger (the catchment population is 1.1 million against 639,000 for Bath) but has suffered as a retail centre due to Broadmead's poor and deteriorating physical environment and competition from The Mall at Cribbs Causeway.

Both cities have new shopping centres proposed; in Bristol Cabot Circus, the extension to Broadmead is under construction and due to open in 2008; and in Bath the SouthGate regeneration scheme is due to commence this year. Multi Development has entered into a partnership with Morley Fund Management, having already secured Debenhams to anchor the scheme with a 125,000 sq ft store.

The researchers forecast the leakage from Bristol and Bath to Cribbs Causeway is likely to be reduced, but due to the quality of its environment, free car parking and a 240,000 sq ft John Lewis, it is unlikely Cribbs' popularity will be severely diminished.

Once both developments in Bristol and Bath have been completed it is likely that shoppers and tourists attracted to Bath will continue to visit due to the city's historic appeal and overall shopping experience. Bristol is likely to increase its influence in the region as it will have a full-range retail offer from value to quality, reflective of its status as the 12th city of England.

The likely losers, as has been the trend when city centres flex their muscles, will be surrounding market towns due to shoppers willing to travel to fulfil a desire for choice and value.

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