Access, Information and Flexibility: The Future of Retail Transport, researched and written by Derek Halden of Derek Halden Consultancy in association with the Institute of Retail Studies at the University of Stirling, shows competitive retail places will increasingly be those with high quality accessibility, such as multi-modal transport hubs, and with large local 'captive' catchments.

The rate of change in transport will accelerate, according to the research, and although retail travel will look similar in 10 years, it will be more flexible, automated and efficient. And more expensive, with different modes of transport and new pricing mechanisms and technologies coming to the fore as lifestyle changes gain momentum.

Halden says a more hands-on approach is needed. "Attitudes and behaviour change will mean more sophisticated consumers make new travel choices," he says. "Owners and managers need to keep up and work with retailers, local authorities and transport providers to improve access within congested networks.

"Less accessible locations will need to provide personalised customer travel plans to remain competitive; perhaps paying for shoppers' parking and providing discounted or free public transport for staff and customers.

"Marketing will focus on up-to-the-minute transport information - via mobile communications technology - to simplify, facilitate and influence shopping location decisions. We will see shoppers using mobile phones and other hand-held devices, which utilise satellite navigation technology, on how best to get to a destination by public or private transport, or even where to go, depending on what they want to buy, given journey times and delays at the time they want to go shopping."

The research suggests centres offering options will be more successful than car-dependent ones. "Spending an increased amount of time managing access for customers and staff will be a big issue," says Halden.

One of the highlighted issues is the need for shopping centre owners to manage spaces more efficiently. While the car will continue to be the dominant mode of transport, Halden points out that parking is an expensive resource, and as such, a lot of centres will be looking at how they can benefit financially.

"There are a lot of towns and cities in the UK with edge-of-centre shopping centres with empty car park spaces during the working week," he says. "Deals could be done for park and ride, where the centre benefits from becoming a hub for the new public transport service. It will make better use of the space, with financial rewards.

"This is valuable land - certainly a typical average would be £600 per year per space in terms of asset cost - so owners could look at putting that into other forms of customer travel."

He adds that there could be opportunities for managers to free up a lot of their parking spaces. "Shopping centres will perhaps give shoppers incentives to visit at particular times so the space is better managed, or else encourage them to come by a non-car-based mode," he says.

Halden also points to car clubs; although he foresees it being another 20 to 40 years before this is commonplace, he reckons clubs and car sharing will be very popular by the end of the century.

"The future core of travel could be more like 'pick up and drop off a car when you need it', so people can live in more attractive environments," he says. "The 'pay as you go' model would mean you pay as and when you need a car to drive from A to B and is appealing economically and technically.

"This could be a move towards electric car stacking - a concept from the Institute of Technology - to use even less space, or it could use conventional cars."

For shopping centres, this could have an influence on car parking provision. "I would envisage most centres will have dedicated bays closer to the shops for car club users," adds Halden. "Because it is so expensive to provide spaces generally, this car-share approach is very efficient as multiple users are using the same space."

Whatever happens in the future, the issue of transport and parking is going to remain an important issue for shopping centres.

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