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PalaceXchange, Enfield |
London is not the easiest of places to develop new shopping centres: fragmented ownership means site acquisition is often a problem and planners jealously protect their town centres. So with this in mind, it is quite remarkable that the capital now has two million sq ft of malls in the pipeline, and even more remarkable is the fact that the two - White City and Stratford City - are both in the ownership of one developer, Westfield.
In six years time, Westfield will have exercised a pincer movement, attacking the central London market from both the east and west with White City due to open in 2008 and Stratford City in 2012.
Even though construction of the million sq ft project is well advanced, Westfield has been tight-lipped about its plans for White City. But recently, leaks have been beginning to appear in the wall of silence. Last month, the company confirmed that its key anchor lettings had been concluded with Marks & Spencer, Debenhams, Waitrose, Next and National Amusements' Cinema de Lux each signing up for flagship stores. And House of Fraser - which has already announced plans to close its nearby Barkers of Kensington store - has also been linked with the scheme.
Many a developer would be delighted with such covenants, but the market buzz about White City had always hinted at a more aspirational mix. According to Caci the 10-minute catchment stands at 400,000 with eight times the number of "affluent" shoppers than the national average. More recently, two new names have been mentioned in connection with the scheme which better fit this template: Armani Exchange and US style icon Barneys New York.
However the tenant mix evolves over the coming two years, White City is clearly going to have a massive impact on retail in London, and nowhere stands to be harder hit than Kensington High Street.
Briant Champion Long's Paul Souber has been a long-time watcher of High Street Ken, as Londoners call it, and he does not subscribe to the prophecies of doom. "Five years ago everyone said Bluewater would kill Lakeside, but it hasn't," he says. "And the same will happen here: the street will find a new market from retailers who don't want to be in the mall."
As an example, he points to Whole Food Markets' decision to take the Barkers building rather than go into White City. And he lists a string of other high-profile names preferring to go into the street even with the shadow of White City hanging over it: Massimo Dutti; Esprit; Mango; Hotel Chocolat are all among recent arrivals. "They're typically signing for 15-year terms so they clearly aren't expecting the street to die," Souber says.
Stuart Melrose at Colliers CRE is less positive. "In 2001, £330 zone A was achieved in lettings to H&M and Gap compared with more recent lettings of £275 zone A," he says.
Even more in the firing line is the West 12 shopping centre at Shepherd's Bush, which sits right opposite one of the entrances to White City. Tim Hance of Leslie Furness, recently appointed as letting agent by landlord Land Securities, shares Souber's sanguine approach. "Our belief is the two can sit alongside each other," he says. "Armani Exchange isn't what West 12's about."
Land Securities is the biggest single owner of inner-London retail, in its own right and through The Metro shopping centre fund, its joint venture with Delancey. Savills director David Justice advises the fund on a number of projects and he singles out its activities in Notting Hill Gate as evidence that White City is not dampening activity in the area. He says Metro's strategy is to attract niche retailers who can create a distinctive identity for the street, a strategy successfully implemented by the Howard de Walden Estate at Marylebone High Street.
PalaceXchange nears completion
PalaceXchange in Enfield is the biggest development to open in London this year with completion due for mid-October. The 160,000 sq ft project is made up of 24 new retail units, a 530-space multi-storey car park and a civic and community facility.
Anchoring PalaceXchange is a 20,000 sq ft Next and a 31,000 sq ft TK Maxx, supported by New Look, Oasis, Topshop, Superdrug, Dorothy Perkins, Clarks, Ottakar's and Caffé Nero.
According to Siep Hoeksma, managing director of ING Real Estate Development UK, the scheme is currently 80 per cent let or under offer, and he claims to be in negotiations on all the remaining space. "Hopefully we're delivering a scheme that meets the needs of Enfield," he says.
And to prove his point, the development is acting as a catalyst for a wider upgrading of the town's retail infrastructure. Anchors Marks & Spencer and Pearsons are both carrying out refurbishments to coincide with the centre's opening.
In accordance with its standard practice, ING has already pre-sold the development to a long-term investor in the form of an Irish consortium at a fixed buy-out yield of 5.35 per cent, implying a price of about £80m. Letting agents for the scheme are Nash Bond and Chase & Partners.
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