The flow of development proposals shows no sign of abating with Lend Lease putting together a million-sq ft scheme in Stockport and the Birmingham Alliance gaining provisional approval for a similar amount at Martineau Galleries in Birmingham.
Clearly the national retail hierarchy is in for a period of rapid change. Although Caci's Retail Footprint research this year showed little change - only Norwich broke into the top ten - in a few years time the rankings are going to look very different. As early as 2008, White City and Liverpool are poised to enter the top 10 and the pace of change will accelerate from then on. But there are indications that retailer demand is weakening. Although two more brands - Elle and Silverscreen - fell by the wayside at the March quarter day, so far the level of voids does not seem to have gone beyond the bounds of normal market liquidity.
But we could do with more retailers launching expansion programmes if the flood of new space is not to damage the health of the market as a whole.
Already, we've seen the Metquarter in Liverpool open only about two-thirds let. John Milligan insists another 25 per cent is spoken for and the rest is for specific brands. But in a few years that level could look very healthy.
Developers need to get around 50 per cent of their floorspace agreed before committing to a scheme. Some programmes have already been quietly allowed to slip, but it'll be interesting to see when the first developer publicly admits to deferring a project until the letting market improves.
Graham Parker, Editor
Have headline rents in shoping centres started to fall?
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- Capital growth
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