Experian retail ranking shows the impact of new schemes on retail hierarchy
Published: 25 November, 2009
Experian's 2009 retail rankings show that despite the economic downturn, the large retail centres that have opened around the UK have delivered some very positive results. The most significant move was the in Cardiff, where the opening of St David’s 2 has seen the capital of Wales leap to sixth place in the rankings from 10th place last year.
Experian's 2009 retail rankings show that despite the economic downturn, the large retail centres that have opened around the UK have delivered some very positive results. The most significant move was the in Cardiff, where the opening of St David’s 2 has seen the capital of Wales leap to sixth place in the rankings fromk 10th place last year.
At the same time the opening of Union Sq has driven Aberdeen up from 20th to 17th place and the first phase of SouthGate in Bath has boosted the city's ranking from 70th to 61st place. But the biggest move came last Spring when the opening of the Arc development lifted Bury St Edmunds from 161st to 145th place.
“In the last twelve months the retail property market has been through turbulent times,” explained Jonathan de Mello, director of retail property at Experian. “It is evident from this year’s ranking that the larger centres have been the most recession-proof to date, but this has been at the expense of the smaller, mid-town retail destinations.
And Experian's research shows that while large schemes have actually seen a net increase in their footfall and dwell times, it has been at the expense of smaller centres. It appears that shoppers are making less frequent shopping trips overall and when they do go shopping they prefer to spend their money and time at the larger centres. Centres such as Bluewater, Meadowhall and Lakeside have definitely benefitted from this trend.
Experian’s 2009 retail rankings research reveals that the average size of a scheme due for completion by 2014 is below 200,000 sq ft, compared to 325,000 in 2008. This shows that developers – as well as putting many of their schemes on hold – have also scaled back their development plans.
Due to this lack of large scale development the researchers expect to see little change in the rankings between tnow and 2014, though there are notable exceptions such as Westfield’s scheme in Stratford, which will be one of the big success stories of the 2009-2014 period, driven by the ‘Olympic effect’ as well as a strong location.
But by 2019 Experian expects a number of large-scale developments to have come on-line as confidence and growth returns to the economy. Estimated for completion between 2014 and 2019 include very large schemes in Leeds, Croydon, Nottingham and Sheffield, and the average development size for 2014-2019 schemes around 290,000 sq ft.
Leeds will be the major winner within this period, with an additional 1.5 million sq ft. of space across the Trinity and Eastgate schemes moving the city up the rankings to number five – ahead of Liverpool and Cardiff.
