A decade on
Published: 04 December, 2008
The UK has enjoyed record new retail development in 2008 but it could not have come at a more challenging time for retailers, with many destinations facing problems of over-capacity, according to the latest retail ranking report from Experian. The report provides comprehensive analysis and comment on the best performing retail centres in the UK and also attempts to predict the future landscape with a forecast to 2018. According to Jonathan De Mello, director of retail consultancy at Experian, "The quality and volume of new retail space has advanced a number of shopping destinations in the 2008 Experian rankings, but the combination of new schemes and dampening consumer demand has put intense pressure on retailer margins."
In De Mello's view, "Major new developments in 2008 have had a significant impact on the rankings. Liverpool One has lifted the city by 10 places and Silverburn in Glasgow has transformed the Pollock Centre into one of the largest out-of-town centres in Scotland. Smaller regional schemes - for example, Eden in High Wycombe, Houndshill in Blackpool and Bouverie Place in Folkestone - will all hopefully see significant uplifts in the rankings over the next few years.
"On the downside, centres located next to large new developments will inevitably be impacted. Westfield London will have an effect on many of the London schemes, with centres such as Hammersmith and Kensington all dropping down the rankings as a result. Similarly, the impact of Liverpool One can be seen in the North West with St Helens dropping down, while Westfield Derby has impacted on Mansfield."
So what of the future? There is surely no more apposite time to examine how our shopping centres will be faring 10 years from now. According to De Mello, Experian's predictions are understandably mixed.
"Looking to 2018, we predict Stratford in London to rise 169 places, entering at number 20, as part of the regeneration of the area due to the Olympic Games in 2012. The South East will see a number of new schemes coming on line in the next 10 years, and these should provide a boost for locations like Bracknell, Portsmouth and Stevenage.
"Losers include Derby, which was a major winner between 2007 and 2008. However, as schemes in the surrounding areas are developed, we predict the centre will slip back to 41. The Martineau Galleries scheme in Birmingham and Summer Row in Wolverhampton will probably result in centres located in the West Midlands, such as Wallsall and Stoke-on-Trent, falling also."
The 2008 retail ranking and the forecasts for 2018 are based on Experian's gravity model, which calculates the amount of comparison goods expenditure a centre is likely to attract given the strength of its retail offer, its accessibility, and the levels of competition around it. This year's ranking methodology has changed slightly to encompass worker and tourist spend as well as residential spend. This provides retailers and property investors with the most robust account available of retail trade generated by the UK's top shopping centres.
De Mello concludes: "Experian's retail ranking provides a unique insight into the current and future face of the retail landscape. The research should prove invaluable to retailers, developers and investors looking to determine their future retail location strategies and investment priorities over the next decade. With any new retail development, it's vital that everyone involved conducts detailed and careful research before investing in a given location."
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=== 2008-2018 WINNERS ===
Centre Name 2018 Rank 2008 Rank Difference Region
Stratford 16 185 169 Greater London
Bracknell 59 101 42 South East
Hounslow 62 92 30 Greater London
Bury 73 99 26 North West
Portsmouth 38 58 20 South East
Stevenage 93 111 18 South East
Newport (Wales) 70 87 17 Wales
Oxford 23 38 15 South East
Gloucester 72 81 9 South West
Sheffield 28 36 8 Yorks & Humber
