Editor's comment
Published: 05 November, 2007
Autumn 2007 will go down in history as the time when Ireland's shopping centre development boom finally came to fruition.
The surge in shopping centre development that began in Dublin is now making waves in locations as far apart as Athlone, Gorey, Kilkenny, Arklow, Cork, Ballaghaderreen and Sligo. And in the Irish capital new centres like Citywest are still adding to the stock of retail space.
Between them all, getting on for 200,000 sq m of new space has been delivered this autumn, bringing the annual total of new openings (by Jones Lang LaSalle's calculations) to 300,000 sq m.
Ireland already has the third-highest density of shopping centre floorspace per capita in Europe, and once this latest crop of schemes is taken into account it could be challenging for the crown of Europe's shopping centre capital.
So can the Irish shopper sustain all this new space, particularly at a time when the US - traditionally Ireland's major trading partner - is teetering on the brink of recession?
That's the question every shopping centre owner, developer or occupier must be asking themselves, and that's why we made the credit crunch our Burning Issue for this edition of Shopping Centre Ireland.
All the indications are that the Irish economy is robust enough to ride out the current economic shockwaves. Even the most pessimistic commentators we could find would only speak of a 'slowing' in economic growth.
But for investors buying Dublin shops off two-and-a-bit per cent yields it might not take outright recession to bring carefully prepared investment projections crashing down. A slowdown in the rate of spending growth - and with it a slowdown in the pace of rental growth - could be enough to leave some exposed.
A useful bellwether of Irish confidence will be the BCSC conference and showcase in Gateshead at the beginning of November.
Ever since the BCSC took its flagship event to Belfast two years ago the event has become a key forum for Irish developers to put their products in front of UK and international retailers.
If it's the Irish agents who are partying hardest in Newcastle's Bigg Market, then it's safe to assume that they believe the longest economic boom in Irish history is set to run and run.
Graham Parker Editor
